Jockey Daniel Grant (center), flanked by his girlfriend and Dr Cyrus Poonawalla, chairman, RWITC, while receiving the Champion Jockey trophy [pic: rwitc.com]
The last time Cooji Katrak won the champion trainer's title he was in South Africa. Yesterday when he won it for the second time, he was on ‘top-of-the-world’."
“Yes, it’s a special kind of joy, like a top-of-the-world feeling,” he said to MiD DAY, after receiving the trophy form club chairman Dr Cyrus Poonawalla, and added, "I am especially pleased because I won more than two crore rupees in stake money for my owners."
Katrak, who scored a double on the concluding day, topped the trainers' tally with 35 wins, while erstwhile champion Pesi Shroff finished runner up with 31 winners. Jockey Daniel Grant, who had a hand in most of Katrak's victories this season, picked up the champion jockey title, and the race club, as a special gesture, had presented the trophy to him a day before as he had to fly to his home country to fulfil his riding engagements there.
Apprentice rider Nikhil Parmar picked up two titles, that of the leading apprentice and also the one for the leading apprentice with allowance. He rode 9 winners which included a hat-trick on the April 5 card. The leading owner prize went to Dr Vijay Mallya, while the Poonawalla stud farms emerged as the leading stud farm.
"It has been our best season ever," said Vivek Jain, chairman of stewards and head of marketing, RWITC, speaking to MiD DAY, "it was great racing all the way--record sponsorships, higher attendance and betting--and most important, much improved media coverage and visibility for the sport."
He added, "I am happy we managed such a show despite a delayed start on account of the horses's health, and weather concerns about heat and humidity that couldn’t be wished away. There was a special flavor of energy to all Sundays that took the racing experience to a new level."
I want to convey my congrats to cooji & app parmar. I hope they read your blog.
ReplyDeleteCongrats cooji. u have always been the master of the game whether you got trophy or not. they called u names and spread stories abt u and u never hit back. & u don't need to. coz now ur performance has givn a fitting reply. its like a slap in the face of the ppl who gunned 4 u.
ReplyDeleteIs the lady Danny's wife or girlfriend? Some sites have reported she's his wife.
ReplyDeleteMr Jain is right about this season being the best ever. Keep it up rwitc!
ReplyDeleteDear Mr. Gosavi,
ReplyDeleteI am a newcomer to your fantastic blog, having accessed it by a fortunate chance. May I request your elucidation on the following points, which, I am sure, would be of interest to your other readers too:
a)how are horses for the FINOO list chosen? Are there any basic principles of handicaping, speed rating, etc., that are used to make the selection?
b)is there a Follow Horses list? If so, how is it prepared?
c)the race books give us split timings for the race, but not for individual horses. Is there any way that an average interested racegoer can obtain such timings. You have mentioned that you use a software for this purpose. Could you please elaborate on this?
d)can FINOO be applied to other centres like Bangalore?
Your analysis of Set Alight's Derby run was superb.
Dear Mr Arjun, here are my responses:
ReplyDeletea) Yes, the basic principles used in this case are based on the formulae of Dynamic Handicapping, a method of speed/pace rating developed by me.
b) Yes, horses get added to the FINOO list only to be considered for the next outing, hence the name. You will get more info from the article "Missing the FINOO list" on this blog.
c) For individual horse's split timings in the race, I use a special software. It is a combination of an old chinese make video player (Xing player which was later acquired by Real Player of the US before discontinuing its brands) combined with a scientific method that reduces the camera angle aberration (and the resultant optical illusion about accuracy of position) to a minimum. However, it is still a very tedious (as in time-consuming) process.
d) FINOO can be applied to all Indian tracks and possibly all turf tracks. The same, however, cannot be said about the dirt tracks where DH has found an entirely unique phenomenon comes into play in the form of "lane bias" like a particular lane (say inside rails) could be way faster than the other lanes.
Thank you for you comment about Set Alight's Derby run article.
Mr Gosavi, the Daily Racing Form available in USA has a method in which they give out 2 numbers for the speed rating of the horse and the race/track variant( Example 98/110 ) , since it appears you use numbers in your formula , is there a way to share your hard work with others like some of the blog owners do , by giving the horses a quantitative number and ( explain the numbers once ) so one can understand the facet of racing that you are covering and one could eventually make a better choice.
ReplyDeleteP.S I do understand that in dirt races there is a inside rail bias, I do not know if I could agree with you that does not hold true to some extent on the Turf specially on the turn / bend (my observation, I did not do any study on this)
Dear Mr.Gosavi,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your response. May I bother you with a few more questions that are of practical importance to punters like me? They are:
a)have you written anything on Dynamic Handicapping, which you have developed, that is available to us?
b)will your blog contain FINOO for the forthcoming Bangalore season? I hope it does, and I am sure in this I echo the feelings of a large number of your readers.
c)I had raised this query earlier. Would you recommend a Follow Horses list? If so, what are your suggestions for its preparation?
Your blogs make fascinating reading. Thank you, Mr. Gosavi.
Dear Mr Ashwin Patel,
ReplyDeleteThe problem with assigning numbers is, if the data that leads to numbers is not accurate, the resultant numbers can lead to dangerous consequences. Numbers imply accuracy, but when their genesis is based on data that is approximate, they more often misguide than illuminate.
For example, in the US (barring tracks like Keeneland where Trakus technology is in use), data, especially when it is based on a race caller's description of the lengths between horses at various calls, can be misleading, and that is to put it charitably.
Also, many tracks in the US still round up the split timings to the nearest fifth of a second letting more inaccuracy creep into the data. What value can such numbers then be?
I sometimes jokingly say that the biggest irony of horse race handicapping is that the best and the worst method both produce exactly 30 % winners--and most times I mean it!
The Dynamic handicapping numbers are slightly better in the sense that they are open to correction (plus or minus) based on four parameters--weight, trip distance, underfoot condition and jockey skill. So there is nothing like ONE or TWO final numbers (like the DRF), but rather every practitioner of DH arrives at his own final figure.
As regards the turn, I suggest you please visit www.paceadvantage.com and check the theory and formulae I have posted there about the effect of turn on speed. My pen name on that forum is Speculus. You may also check "Gosavi's formula for accurate timing" on that site which many American handicappers now use in their handicapping process.
Dear Arjuna,
ReplyDeleteI am more than willing to answer all your questions because you come across as an intelligent inquirer. But I have a problem. I believe in transparency and that's why I will not be comfortable in our exchange until you use proxy to post your comments.
Hope you will soon come "clean", and we will start having a meaningful exchange.
Dear Mr.Gosavi,
ReplyDeleteWhat would you like me to do? I did not follow what you have said about use of proxy. I have posted my comments following the instructions given in your blog on How to Post Anonymously. Arjuna is a pseudonym that I have used.
Mr Gosavi, We agree on some things , One is that Handicapping is not an accurate science, it appears our view points about numbers are slightly different, the numerical aspect of mine is that when the numbers deviate a lot from the norm it point to a higher degree of success, I have a BIG EGO , so while understanding that a 30% success rate is difficult to to better, I tend to look more in terms of accuracy of thought process, rather than passing the post first. In this I mean and I hope that you agree with me that in any race if your choice is less than 2-3 lengths away from the winner I deem it a correct choice ( logic )as there are various factors that occur during a race which could give a deviation of that much.
ReplyDeleteNow coming back to the question of numbers , it is just as a aid in considering the race thru different facets , IF there is a quantitative comparison of a logic that has proven it self most of the time then one can make a more educated and confident choice,
If you look at some of the blogs out there for Indian racing they give out numbers and I HAVE FOUND THAT WHEN THE NUMBERS HAVE A BIG VARIANCE that horse comes in most of the times ( you do need to understand the logic behind the numbers given by the author and check the other things like fitness , form , distance etc, )
In the case of DH , (I do not know your process am trying to find that out , I will defiantly give a peek into the website later on ), I can however tell you by experience that The numbers given by DRF serve a good purpose, I was using them when I lived in the East Coast (1982- 1990 ) Now I do not indulge racing ( in U S ) as I live in Wisconsin where there is no Horse racing.
I have been racing since 1971, Now I indulge in Indian Racing thanks to the various websites ( I do my own Study and corroborate my findings with the others ), AND NO THIS IS NOT MY PROFESSION BUT JUST MY PASSION.
In short Mr Gosavi, it is my strong belief that if you can somehow quantify your thoughts MANY OF YOUR FOLLOWERS AND BELIEVERS could make good use of your efforts, I have typed this during my working hours and If I have got off the topic please excuse me
P.S I am in no way saying or hinting that I am better than any other but merely explaining my thoughts and experiences.
Dear Mr Arjuna,
ReplyDeleteCan we discuss this matter of posting privately in mail? I should be able to explain to you precisely what apprehensions the blog moderator has about the source of your posts, although I perfectly agree you may be completely innocent about it. No offence intended, just wanted to clear some anomalies. Please write to gosavi@mid-day.com even with your pseudonym mail, not a problem.
Coming back to your questions, here are my responses:
a)Yes, I have written a booklet outlining the theory and mathematical framework of DH. This was not for sale but was given to my students as course material.
b)Yes of course, FINOO horses will be discussed in the blog during the Bangalore season.
c) I do recommend a follow horses list--but with a difference. I recommend the FINOO list instead of a full-fledged handicapping process for every race. You will find my reasons in a mail I had written to a student of mine (CP) who has posted it on this blog in the article (Sunday, Apr 26 cond....) in the comments section.
It gives me pleasure to know that you find this blog fascinating. Thanks.
By the way, sorry if my last response unsettled you, it was not meant to. Hope you will write mail to me and we could sort out the issue in private domain.
Dear Mr Ashwin Patel,
ReplyDeleteI think one must reverse-think the process of long term profit, starting with the right hand side of the equation:
ROI = [Win% x (AoW)] - Loss%
where AoW is average odds on winners and Loss% is (1 - Win%).
The nature of the formula makes one thing absolutely mandatory, if you want to improve your ROI (taking roi from negative to positive, that is turning from a loser into winner, also falls under "improving the ROI"), then you have only 3 options:
1. Either improve your Win%
2. Or improve your AoW
3. Or, preferably, improve BOTH
Whatever method or system one follows, or whatever steps one takes to make them better, if those steps do not have direct bearing on these points, a handicapper would only be wasting his time and effort.
Take for example, keeping record of your bets. Apparently, even the best handicappers fail to grasp what a wonderful connection it has on improving win% (Point No. 1 above). Because if you keep records, you see a clear pattern which type of bets you make are mainly losers, so simply eliminating those bets leads to an improved Win%.
Anyway, this I just sought as an example. My point is if your method or system (whether speed numbers or body language or trainer pattern or numerology or astrology--or whatever) never loses focus of the ROI equation, then it hardly matters what others are doing.
Because as they say, there are hundred ways to skin a cat, it does not matter which you use as long as you know how to break its spine.