Kripa (Harish up) being led in by B Puttanna along with owners Mr & Mrs A V Rukhana [pic: Indiarace]
Lush Lashes (2-7)
Kripa (4-9)
Greens (5-4) &
The Last Samurai (6-2).
CP & Curious No End have slightly changed the qualifier rules, and as agreed earlier, I am adopting their recommendations. They recommend that a) The level must be considered the same as long as the official handicapper has not raised the rating of the horse in question by more than 6 points after the last run, irrespective of whether the horse is racing in the same class today or has sought to run in higher class; b) The rule for trips, + or - 200m is kept unaltered; & c) The jockey should be acceptable as long as he is either the same, or better (in strike rate) or has recently been a winner on the same track, preferably in the last 10 rides.
Let me apply the NEW qualifier rules to see how many of them qualify as bets:
Lush Lashes (2-7)
i) Running at the same level (Terms, maidens, 3y)
ii) Running over + or - 200m trip (1100m now; 1200m last time)
iii) Has the same rider (S John)
Satisfies all the 3 conditions.
A WIN bet.
Kripa (4-9)
i) Running at the same or lower level (From Terms, maidens, 3y last time to class IV now; I take it as almost the same level)
ii) Running over + or - 2trip (1400 now; 1200m last time)
iii) Has a better rider (from Ashok to Harish)
Satisfies all the 3 conditions.
A WIN bet.
Greens (5-4)
i) Running at the same level (Class III; 40-65)
ii) Running over 400m shorter trip (1200m now from 1600m last time)
iii) Has the same rider (C Krishnan)
Satisfies only 2 of 3 conditions.
NO win bet.
The Last Samurai (6-2)
i) Running at the lower level (Open class III last time, now class III, 4y)
ii) Running over the same trip (1600m)
iii) Has the acceptable level of rider (NS Parmar has been a winner on this track in the last 10 rides)
Satisfies all the 3 conditions.
A WIN bet.
3 wins today.
ReplyDeleteProbable odds are 1.5 , 1. 75 and 3 to 1.
Good luck,
I think only one (LUSH LASHES) will win mr Gosavi. Finoo list is fine but as your wellwisher i request you post selections only after studying the full race. Good luck.
ReplyDeleteViren
I m surprised angelfire does not come in ur list.
ReplyDeleteThe last samurai has been backed like mad. Present odds for your 3 horses are 1.3 1.2 & 1.45
ReplyDeleteAgain i am just cutting n pasting by adding today's bets.
ReplyDeleteI am monitoring both place (without any qualifier) and WIN (after applying the qualifier rules), here are results so far.
PLACE bets (without qualifier)
Rs 1000/- per bet on tote at Bangalore*
No Horse Place paid (on Rs1000)
1. Balance De Power 1,200
2. Blue Danube 1,200
3. Moon Flower 2,100
4. Marine Zone 2,300
5. Czar Alexander -1,000
6. Up North 1,800
7. Secret Agenda 2,400
8. Golden Kingdom 1,100
9. Smoking Aces* -----
10. Born Special 2,200
11. The Giant 1,500
12. Pure Devotion -1,000
13. Devilitto 1,300
14. Trillion Win -1,000
15. Lush Lashes +1,200
16. Kripa +1,100
17. Greens -1,000
18. The Last Samurai +1,400
-----------
17,800 Returns
Less 17,000 Investment
=========
800 Net profit
*No place pool in 3horse race.
Strike rate for PLACE bets 13 won/17 made = 76.5%
Return on investment (ROI) 800 net profit/17000 invested = +4.7%
WIN bets (after applying qualifier rules)
Rs 1000/- per bet on tote at Bangalore
No Horse win paid (on Rs1000)
1. Balance De Power 1,400
2. Blue Danube 1,800
3. Golden Kingdom -1,000
4. Smoking Aces -1,000
5. The Giant 4,300
6. Pure Devotion -1,000
7. Devilitto +2,100
8. Trillion Win -1,000
9. Lush Lashes -1,000
10. Kripa +1,700
11. The Last Samurai -1,000
-----------
11,300 Returns
Less 11,000 Investment
=========
300 Net profit
Strike rate for WIN bets 5 won/11 made = 45.5%
Return on investment (ROI) 300/11,000 = +2.7%