Monday, September 21, 2009

Twenty Commandments


Thoughts on how one can beat this game over the long term:

I just posted this as advice on my favourite racing forum, and thought it must get onto my blog too because it is applicable equally to Indian horse players. So here it goes:

1. Invent a simple (as opposed to complex) handicapping method (like FINOO) that has the potential to show flat bet profit over the long term. [And take my advice, if you cannot find such a method--quit this game RIGHT NOW!]

2. The method MUST be such that allows you to focus on ONLY 3% of the horses (max), and disregard the other 97% horses COMPLETELY and FOREVER, without any loss of profitability.

3. Develop the temperament--patience and discipline--NOT to deviate from this method--EVER!

4. Based on such method, do your OWN assessment for ONLY such number of tracks that you can handle WITHOUT devoting more than HALF HOUR a day on the average to this pursuit.

5. Stick to your assessment in the face of contrary opinion even if the entire world gangs up against you if you are sure you will be right more often than the world.

6. Bet ONLY on the FORM of your choice (from the 3%), not on class, pedigree or hype (of the other 97%).

7. Once you make up your mind that your method horse is going over the right trip, right class/level and with the right jockey on top of it, don't even look at the rivals or competition--just go ahead with your bet.

8. If your horse (from the 3% list) is running over suitable trip, reasonable class level and going out with one of the top 5 jocks (on current form) on the circuit, ignore ALL the other runners ALL the time, and make a WIN or PLACE bet as you deem fit.

9. Stay away from numbers of ANY kind at ALL TIMES--however crude or sophisticated they may be. Because numbers are always a double-edged sword, and even the best mathematical brains cannot be sure they have assigned optimum weightage to all factors that have gone into making those numbers.

10. Get out of the nonsense of overlay/underlay. Remember, EVERY winner is an OVERLAY. Period.

11. Make VERY FEW bets, and ONLY those which fulfill ALL your desired criteria. Remember the maxim:
When in doubt, stay out!

12. Remember, between MISSING A WINNER and BETTING A LOSER, the first is wiser, because races are forever, and more importantly, NOT BETTING, by definition, makes you stronger in the "patience and discipline" department.

13. Take a better price on your method horse as an opportunity to make a bigger killing, NOT to re-examine your bet.

14. Once you have checked you have made the right decision, IGNORE the market and its assessment (odds) of your choice.

15. If your method horse comes from a dependable barn and is being ridden by a top jockey, NEVER skip it unless you have a strong reason to believe it cannot handle the trip distance.

16. NEVER load money on a horse that is NOT your method horse.

17. Take form cycles (not horse's, but your own) very seriously. Be proportionately aggressive in your betting when winning, but calculatedly conservative when losing.

18. Enter the racecourse (if you MUST visit, it is NOT necessary in this age of phone/internet betting) WITHOUT the Form or race book in your hand. You can always remember which track, which race and which horse# you wish to bet because, (if you follow all this advice), you are very rarely going to make more than 2 or 3 bets in a day.

19. Stick only to WIN (or PLACE) bets, and shun exotics. Because WIN and PLACE depend more on skill than chance, while exotics depend more on chance than skill.

20. Never invest in jackpot & super jackpot pools UNLESS there is a carryover up for grabs AND/OR you can bank on method horses in at least two of the races that are taking on undeserving, cramped-odds, false favorites.

6 comments:

  1. what about people who cannot invent and dont wanna stay out of it either.

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  2. Dear Amith,

    Simply follow FINOO.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dear Prakash,
    Thanks for the twenty commandments but to adhere to it is a tough task and calls for huge amount of displine.
    Hence the winning strike rate and and at higher/longer odds is the key.
    May your tribe of people guiding punters like us grow unabated.

    ReplyDelete
  4. As precious as the Ten Commandments. But you should have started with words "THOU SHALL....

    ReplyDelete
  5. Never were more wise words spoken. Amen.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Prakash, rule number 6 says bet only on form. How can you bet on form with first time runners? Only track work can give you idea. Idon't know why but you never mention good word about track work or its use. I doubt if any system can be success without track work.

    ReplyDelete

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