The JOCKEY factor

The JOCKEY Factor

Will the Shroff juggernaut stop?

That’s the question everyone is asking about trainer Pesi Shroff’s current incredible winning streak.

For a racing season for which championship is generally bagged by a trainer who leads in 35 to 40 winners in an entire season, no one has ever seen or heard anything quite like this. Shroff has so far saddled 33 winners from 69 runners, at an unthinkable strike rate of 48%, and 90% of his horses have finished in-the-money. He has already won close to Rs 1.5 crore in stakes for his owners, and with nearly two-thirds of the season still to unfold, speculation is on how far he will go if he continues at the same clip.

At a complete loss for either words or historic reference to explain this super success, many theories are being proposed by race-goers and racing analysts, among whom are Shroff’s fans as well as detractors.

Shroff's fans attribute it simply to Shorff’s extra-ordinary training skills, while his detractors cite ‘reasons’ ranging from ‘He has the costliest blue-blooded horses’ to ‘he has the wealthiest owners with bottomless purses’ to ‘he had such a lean recent seasons, so the horses are bound to bounce to form now’, etc.

Maybe both his fans and detractors have some truth in what they claim, but I find it extremely surprising that a major factor in Shroff’s super success is summarily being ignored by one and all.

I am talking about the two jockeys—Paul Mulrennan and Chris Hayes—who, at Mahalaxmi, ride almost exclusively for Shroff, and who have been in absolutely incredible riding form this season.

Paul has ridden at 50% clip for Pesi Shroff (14 winners from 28 mounts), while Chris Hayes has created the kind of record that even Ramu cannot conjure up for his riders at Chennai: winning nine of the ten horses that Pesi offered him!

Considering the fact that any jockey in such exceptional form ‘gains’ at least half a second (or 3 lengths) for his horse, the fact that these two riders between them have won 15 races for Shroff (that’s 46% of Shroff’s 33 winners) by lesser verdict, highlights how crucial has been the contribution of the foreigner duo. By contrast, eight other riders (excluding Richard Hughes who rode Jacqueline to the Guineas double) donned silks on the Shroff-trained horses, but earned only 8 wins for him from 31 mounts, at less than 25% success rate.

Will the Shroff juggernaut stop?

The answer to that question, therefore, rests on whether the super riding form of these two riders, who have so far done justice to their trainer’s superlative riding talent, continues or not.

Post Script: An interesting aside. Most of you may have noticed this, but let me put it here for the benefit of those who have not.

If the season's champion jockey rides mainly or exclusively for a trainer, that trainer is almost assured of the championship. But if the leading rider rides freely for many trainers, then the trainer who has, mainly or exclusively, the services of a jockey with the best win percentage among the rest, ends up bagging the championship.

Want to check? Have a look at the 2009 seasons.

If Rupesh was champion rider for Hyderabad winter season and he rode mainly or exclusively for trainer Deshmukh, you know who the champion trainer was. Similarly C Alford/Vijay Singh and Imran Chisty/Cooji Katrak emerged champions at Kolkata & Pune.

But what happens when Suraj Narredu, who freely rides for many trainers, and wins the championships at both Mysore and Bangalore Summer? At Mysore, R Foley becomes the champion trainer for whom B Prakash, with the best strike rate (27%) among the rest, rides exclusively. And at Bangalore, jockey Wayne Smith finishes 3rd in the tally, but has the best strike rate (30%), even better than champion Suraj Narredu (24%), so who becomes the champion trainer there? Of course, S Padmanabhan who had exclusive services of Wayne Smith during the season.

Coming back to the on-going Mumbai season, it is interesting to note that Pesi Shroff has the services of not only the jockey sitting at the top of the tally (Paul Mulrennan), but also the two best strike-rate jockeys, as both Paul and Chris are riding consistently close to the incredible 50% mark.

Are there any bookies out there who still want to offer odds on Shroff winning the championship this season? I think he must already be a MONEY-BACK proposition.

(c) MiD DAY