WARNING
This is an untested system. It may be dangerous to take its findings seriously until real life data is collected and analyzed.
Note:
This is an experimental rating system.
It’s a simple ‘Paper & Pencil’ method that requires, after reasonable practice, ONLY 5 to 10 seconds per horse to work out the ratings.
The method combines some features of Dynamic Ratings (DyR) and FINOO (Follow-In-Next-Outing-Only).
The rating figures are RELATIVE only for that particular race, they are not ABSOLUTE.
So don’t get upset if you find, occasionally, a higher figure for a class V race than a class I race, because the figures are valid ONLY in the context of THAT PARTICULAR RACE.
The method considers only the last two runs of a horse.
So if a horse is making a debut or has only run once race, the rating is not worked out.
Steps to interpret the ratings and draw conclusions:
1. Locate the highest positive rating figure in a race and highlight it with GREEN (For example, in the first race Oyster Blue has the highest figure +2.0).
2. All horses within 1 point of the highest rated horse are then also marked in GREEN. (Sea Value and Soophie with +1.0 are within 1 point of Oyster Blue)
3. Any horse/s another half a point away are then marked in YELLOW (check Wild Torronaado).
4. Now the GREEN are WIN contenders.
5. The YELLOW are win/place contenders ONLY IF the jockey shows great form today.
6. Remember, once the GREEN (WIN contenders) are shortlisted, their order of finish will depend SOLELY on the jockeyship. For example, if my order of jockey skill is Imran Chisty, Neeraj Rawal and DK Ashish, my selection will be Sea Value 1st, Soophie 2nd & Oyster Bay 3rd. (In other words, it means that among the WIN contenders within a 1-point range, it is the jockeyship that will decide the outcome of the race, and NOT necessarily the top rating.)
7. All other horses are IGNORED as NON-CONTENDERS for the WIN category.
Hi Prakash,
ReplyDeleteGood to see something come out of your STABLE after a long time. I hope its a Winner.
Looks good to me. Any methodology backed by some science should do good in the long run although testing it at fag end of the season has its own risks.
This methodology is more practical as decisions can be taken at the last minute based on which trainer/jockey/connections is on job on a particular day.
For example if BLESSINGS is on job you can safely assume BORN SPECIAL also to do well.
Good luck to your new experiment.
Cheers,
Dev
Dear sir,
ReplyDeletePlease clarify what is positive rating figure, how to calculate it.
Thank you.
Ramesh.
Thanks Dev.
ReplyDeleteRamesh,
I need to do a lot of work (watching videos of nearly two 7 weeks' races that I missed) before I can update the FINOO list and resume. So I thought of testing this combination system which I fiddled with during the free time I had at the Yoga camp, and which can be tested until then.
However, unless the system does a decent job of shortlisting contenders (60+% races would be a fair deal), it is not worth discussing its modalities and waste everyone's time. So maybe let's just wait and watch until then.
Dear sir,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the reply, I wish and hope the new system get great success. All the best.
Ramesh.
dear prakash, again you'r getting confused and confusing others. it's every handicapper's dream to find a one or two point magic formula to find a winner, but you very well know that every race is tricky and you can't successfully handicap a race unless you give sufficient time to it. so forget about finoo and such other short-cut forumlas and do hard work. you have the ability and talent.
ReplyDelete