My take on Set Alight's run in the Derby

Please click on the picture to enlarge the image, in case the red marker post and the coded time stamp is not seen clearly.

Query by Mr Anonymous on the jockey Srinath article thread:

Mr Gosavi this interview is very good. If nothing else it puts forward very well what can be called minority point of view. But may i ask you a question mr gosavi why are you shying away from giving your own personal opinion of the race? Where is your reading of the derby? I checked last weeks all middays and I have not found anything except the article on monday after the derby.

Dear Mr Anonymous, 

I believe in talking BEFORE the event, rather than later, because I strongly believe in William Cowper’s famous quote: “Every fool is wise after the event.” 

Another thing I have believed all my life is that what they taught us at school was wrong. They taught us man is a ‘rational’ animal. I beg to differ. 

Man is not a rational animal; man is a ‘rationalizing’ animal. 

I fancy myself as a writer first and a reporter later. So I am happy to be in a profession where I have to first write my opinion (before the race), and report the quotes and result (after the race).  If you have followed my writings over the past two decades, in the rare instances when I wrote against a professional or even the race club, I first put on the table credible proof and only then raised questions. 

Now, in the Set Alight case, I will tell you what I said, wrote or expressed as my opinion BEFORE the race: 

I was, perhaps, the only one from the media who thought Set Alight was not as great NOW as she was being made out to be. In my preview article in MiD DAY (Advantage Set Alight), I talked about it. She certainly did not have the kind of form on which she built up her reputation last year. In the same article, I also pointed out that she had peaked too early as a three-year-old, and any horse that shows precocious talent of such magnitude is bound to regress in form. I also said her latest performances on the Mahalaxmi track were not exactly sizzling, and that it may turn out to be a close race for her.

However, as a danger to Set Alight, I never looked beyond Autonomy. The only problem I had with Autonomy was his jockey. I have many times made clear that I don’t believe in the adage ‘horses for courses’ as much as I believe in ‘jockeys for courses’. During the pre-Derby press conference I had expressed my apprehensions about Richard Hughes even to trainer Bezan Chenoy in an informal chat. Hughes may be a very good or great rider on his home tracks, but he has always been just about an average rider on the Mahalaxmi track. Worse, the only Derby win he figures in on this track was not won by him for the horse, but rather won by the horse for Hughes. As a rider he made a perfect mess of the situation, and only a courageous horse like Smart Chieftan could have bailed out himself and his rider in the last 50 meters, as he did. On top of it, when Bezan told me that Hughes was going to land here on the morning of D day, I felt now there was perhaps no threat for Set Alight, as I had completely ignored Antonio’s chances. (Mr Meherboon Irani, stock broker, may testify about this discussion if he chooses.)

Another thing. When I first read on Indiarace that Malesh was to ride Set Alight, I immediately called a common friend, Mahendra Mallya, Indiarace correspondent (I did not even have Malesh’s number—this is for those who think I hold a brief on Malesh’s behalf) and told him to ask Malesh to reconsider the decision. “Malesh has nothing to gain and everything to lose,” these were my precise words, “if she wins, it’s all Set Alight & Pesi, but if she loses, it’s going to be only Malesh Narredu—that’s how everybody is going to react.”

Well, Mahendra Mallya is my friend, so the credibility of this incident may be challenged. All right, you may ask Pradumna Singh, senior stipendiary steward of RWITC, to whom I repeated the exact same words when we were discussing Set Alight & Derby two days BEFORE the race. 

I even publicly put a question to Pesi Shroff at the pre-derby press conference if he thought Set Alight today was the same filly that won the Bangalore summer derby. I was clearly talking about her form, but Shroff took the question in a lighter vein, and chose to reply: “Well, just before coming here form the stables, I had a good look at her, and to me, she looked the same.” Needless to say, there was a hearty laughter in the audience for that witty reply, but now, with the benefit of hindsight, that was perhaps the only right question asked BEFORE the event.

Now, about my reading of the race, which being a personal opinion, may be open to debate, but I will try to ensure, as is my habit, to talk only of the ‘facts’, as far as possible—so the debate will not degenerate into a brawl. 

Maybe because the race clocked record time (by the way, n number of races have done that, especially this season, so that’s hardly an important factor, I think), the first ‘instinctive’ reaction of everyone is to blame the jockey for going ‘with the pace’, making assumption that initial pace of a race that breaks course record must be lightning fast. 

What if this assumption is WRONG? What if the pace, instead of being lightning fast, was actually very slow for a race like the Derby? I know this might come as a shock to most, but here is the truth. 

The initial pace in the Derby was very slow, almost leisurely, and the first six furlongs were clocked in exactly 1:15.05 seconds—you read it right, worse than the time a bottom class field would clock on this track. 

Don’t believe it? Okay, here are the timings of ALL the class V races run over 1200m this season until the Derby weekend:

Race# 2: 1:12.39

Race# 10: 1:12.28

Race# 11: 1:13.74            

Race# 12: 1:13.85

Race# 38: 1:14.41            

Race# 39: 1:13.83            

Race# 77: 1:13.62            

Race# 78: 1:13.55

Race# 95: 1:14.34            

Race# 97: 1:13.81            

Race# 108: 1:13.05          

Race# 115: 1:14.50

Race# 153: 1:12.95          

Race# 164: 1:14.14          

Race# 165: 1:15.05  

Have a good look at these figures. Ten of the 15 races for bottom class horses on this track have clocked less than 1:14, and the slowest time—now this gets real interesting—is the same as the pace of the grade 1, Indian Derby at the half-way mark! 

Now tell me, by any stretch of imagination, can you call it lightning fast?

Very fast?

All right, ……..fast?

See the point? 

Okay, looking at the last couple of figures in that list, some may argue that the six furlongs timings were perhaps getting slower as the season progressed. Let’s then blow that myth too. 

Let’s look at the track condition that prevailed on the Derby weekend. There were no Class V, 1200m races on the Derby day, but there were two a day before. Now look at those timings: 

Race# 181: 1:12.98

Race# 182: 1:12.53 

So, whichever way you look at it, the “alleged” fast initial pace, due to which Set Alight’s chances got blown away because Malesh Narredu stalked it, turns out to be an illusion. At best, it was a leisurely pace (a point I made in my MiD DAY column next day, refer “I had a gut feeling..”), and at worst, it was a very slow pace if you judge by the standards of a race like the Indian Derby. Any student of pace handicapping will tell you that the right thing for the jockey to do in a very slow pace is either to be as close to the pace as possible, or get into striking position before the race takes a serious turn. It is ironical Narredu is being crucified for doing precisely that. 

Coming back to the latter half of the race, let’s put things in perspective now. Here are split timings of the latter half of the race at various markers: 

Marker          Pace             Set Alight                Antonios

1200m         1:15.05          1:15.38                  1:15.76

1000m        1:27.09           1:27.61                  1:28.03

800m:         1:40.05          1:40.37                  1:40.67                 

600m:         1:52.91          1:52.91                  1:53.27

400m:         2:04.80          2:04.80                  2:05.25

200m:         2:16.43          2:16.43                  2:16.72

WP:            2:28.58          2:28.84                 2:28.58 

We have seen that the pace was leisurely until halfway; now focus on another interesting fact, from 1200m marker until the 200m marker, Set Alight has taken 61.38 seconds (2:16.43s minus 1:15.05s), which again, on this fast track, cannot be said to be suicidal. 

On the Mahalaxmi track, one of the most authentic tests of the physical condition of a horse is its ability to put in a sub-12 (a furlong in under 12 seconds) gallop in at least two of the last four furlongs. And if the horse is classy, like Set Alight, it would easily do three sub-12 numbers in that zone. 

With this in mind, let’s go for the pace within the race, and closely inspect the last four furlongs, the most controversial part of the trip as far as Narredu’s ride is concerned, because that’s where he chose to go ahead and lead the pack (between 800 & 600), and then kept going till the 200m marker where Set Alight still looked like a winner, before running out of steam in the last furlong when Antonios made a sitting duck out of her. 

                           8-600     6-400   4-200   200-WP

Set Alight             12.54     11.89     11.63     12.41    

Antonios              12.60     11.98     11.47      11.86 

It would also be revealing to check Set Alight’s Ruia Cup numbers, and juxtapose them with her Derby numbers: (Her Ruia Cup victory was effortless, in record time, and her own timings at 800m onwards were:  1:14.45, 1:26.23, 1:37.81, 1:48.97, 2:01.15) 

Translated to seconds, the comparison looks like this:

                                8-600     6-400     4-200     200-WP

Set Alight  Ruia           11.78     11.58     11.16     12.18   (3 sub-12s, including an exceptional 11.16)

(400m extra)   Derby    12.54     11.89     11.63     12.41    (2 sub-12s, found wanting when asked for the 3^rd) 

It is a matter of conjecture why Set Alight on this occasion, despite racing in leisurely pace, could not produce three sub-12s in the last four furlongs. The reasons, generally, are lack of class, health or stamina. 

Since we all know Set Alight is stuffed with class every ounce, it could be either health or stamina.

If it is health, she may not race for a long time now; if it is stamina, we will have to wait for confirmation until she runs 12 furlongs or more against worthy rivals. 

I will wait until then before making further comments on this issue.  

Special note: It is possible Pesi Shroff too believes Narredu lost the race ‘out of the gates’ only because his belief is based on the perception of a fast pace leading to the record timing. It is possible his belief was further strengthened when one of the race books printed at Bombay last Sunday carried erroneous split timings for the Derby—listing 1:13.02 as half time (1200m) instead of 1:15.05, a difference of over 2 seconds! It may not be just a co-incidence that Shroff, who kept silent through the week, chose to speak about it only after a week. I feel so because knowing Pesi, the last thing he would do is to blame someone else for a horse's failure. My only feeling is he has done it--if at all those are his exact words--because maybe he is misled about the pace scenario of the race. I shall know when I meet him next, and if it must be reported, I will do it in this blog.