Once again, there is only ONE horse on the Sunday card that also figures in the FINOO list.
Devilitto (8-2)
a) Running at the same level (Class V. True, now runs among non-winners of this season, but even last time, all in the fray were non-winners this sesaon anyway)
b) Running over 200m extra (1400m from 1200)
c) Ridden by the same jockey (Imran Chisty)
Satisfies ALL conditions.
A WIN bet.
P.S.:
Horses struck off the FINOO list after last run: Up North (8-7)
And just failed making the FINOO list: Blade Runner (4-7)
Good luck.
devilto shud be 3/1. in fact the field in that race shud be 3s or more.
ReplyDeleteI just checked the stats. I think the over 80% strike rate for place for a method that does not take into account any kind of analysis of rivals is quite remarkable. You must be willing to learn a thing or two from your students if what they (especially CP) makes more sense.
ReplyDeleteDear Mr.Gosavi:
ReplyDeleteYes you are absolutely correct in insisting that we cannot come to any concrete conclusions till the method is proved again and again by statics.
Your FINOO horse is Devilitto.
Someone in the comments had written about what I am talking about TF and FF. TF is the trackform rating worked by the British horse Racing board for all the races in U.K. It is their claim that in nine out of ten races the winner is from the first four rated horses.As far as the FF is concerned it the final fraction seconds in the last 400 metres that a horse has cut. The lesser the FF and better the performance.
Now coming back to Devilitto, I have worked out the TF and FF of the all the horses. Only 3 horses come in the picture.
1.Devilitto TF 11 and FF 25.54
2.Upnorth TF 7 and FF 26.53
3.Alohamora TF 1 and FF 26.98
others don't coming in the recking.
If the FINOO rule is now applied to the above only Devilitto qualifies. Hence the bet of the day. Let us see.
Thanks and have a good day.
Ravi
I am 70 now and quit racing after losing a fortune when I was 55. This season I have gone to Mahalaxmi only on the Ruia cup day. When I was a regular a parsi old man used to sit next to me and always insisted that place betting is the way to go. I thought he made money almost everyday. But of course that is my feeling & I may be wrong. Now I also feel after reading your site and comments that may be he had a point. Or may be I am feeling it because I have lost big playing win bets only. Cant say.
ReplyDeleteDear Prakash,
ReplyDeletePlease come up with Last in next outing only(LINOO) so that it enables those people who enters race course to eat only can benfit.I need not to say that every tom dick and harry will success in these feat then why not you.
Dear Prakash
ReplyDeleteI hereby give my selections for todays mumbai races
1. Courage Under Fire win
3 Sea Ruler win
4 Swahili win
5. Star Impact win
7. Flaming Arrow Win
8. Devilitto win
I am confident that I shall net in five winners and gain in your accolades.
mr gosavi are you sure you are not making mistake when you say horses struck off the list is NONE. Because UP NORTH was on your list last time. Pl clarify.
ReplyDeleteYou are right, Anonymous. Thanks for pointing out. Up North was on the list last time, and by the rule, had to go off after that run. Thanks again.
ReplyDeletemr gosavi y r u once again allowing anonymous ppl 2 post selections? i hv said it b4 n i m saying it again. let them go 2 ir or rp, or let go 2 hell. and wht g'rantee this fellow gives of 5 wins out of six? when u dare 2 only 1 n give finoo logic 4 that n still tip wins or flops 505 time, how dare he make such claims? n y u allow it? v come here 4 u n ur tips, not any anon's.
ReplyDeletepl don't entertn such clowns. don't degrade such a b'tiful blog u created.
Honestly Prakash I was skeptical about your blog. But now I am a great fan of yours. More than your knowledge & wisdom I appreciate your courage & conviction. Keep up the good show.
ReplyDeleteDear Mr.Prakash Gosavi.
ReplyDeleteToday again the horse in Finno with the best TF and FF won just like The Gaint. I do not wish to jump to any conclusions at this stage but all the same the horse in the FINOO list if it comes in the reckoning with BHB TF rating and FF, it seems at this stage it naturally becomes a good bet. That is what it look like. All the same i would like to apply this to many more contests and observe the result but for the time being it looks that if a horse qualifies in the FINOO and then qualifies on TF and FF it is a good bet.
I would be my pleasure to see your views on this and I will more than appreciate if you can post them at your earliest convienance.
Thanks and have a great day.
RAVI
Boss, am just cutting n pasting yesterday’s post with today’s update.
ReplyDeleteI am monitoring for u both place (as I suggested) and WIN (as you recommend), here are results so far.
I say, no qualifier no filter only follow finoo for place
Rs 1000/- per bet on tote at Bangalore*
No Horse Place paid (on Rs1000)
1. Balance De Power 1,200
2. Blue Danube 1,200
3. Moon Flower 2,100
4. Marine Zone 2,300
5. Czar Alexander -1,000
6. Up North 1,800
7. Secret Agenda 2,400
8. Golden Kingdom 1,100
9. Smoking Aces* -----
10. Born Special 2,200
11. The Giant 1,500
12. Pure Devotion -1,000
13. Devilitto 1,300
-----------
15,100 Returns
Less 12,000 Investment
=========
3,100 Net profit
*No place pool in 3horse race.
Strike rate for PLACE bets 11 won/13 made = 84.6%
Return on investment (ROI) 3100 net profit/12000 invested = 25.8%
Making WIN bets only after applying the qualifier rules as recommended by you
Rs 1000/- per bet on tote at Bangalore
No Horse win paid (on Rs1000)
1. Balance De Power 1,400
2. Blue Danube 1,800
3. Golden Kingdom -1,000
4. Smoking Aces -1,000
5. The Giant 4,300
6. Pure Devotion -1,000
7. Devilitto +2,100
-----------
9,600 Returns
Less 7,000 Investment
=========
2,600 Net profit
Strike rate for WIN bets 4 won/7 made = 57.1%
Return on investment (ROI) 2,600/7,000 = 37.1%
congrats sir.
ReplyDeletevery good call.
n like someone said u have real conviction.
god bless u sir.
original fanofmaster
Only 7 win bets in 7 racedays. I think thats the key to success. patience pays.
ReplyDeleteMr CP,
ReplyDeleteI am told to inform you that there is a minor mistake in your post.
The place bets should be 10 won/12 made and the strike rate should be 83.3%.
Regards,
Blog Moderator
Prakashji,
ReplyDeleteGood show once again.You are showing light at the end of a tunnel to battered punters.I've been racing for almost 29 years to be precise, never followed any one & I am master of myself.But today truly I admit I've become a fan of you.
There is something else I want you to know.If you recall pune racing of 10 or 11 years back, I'm sorry I don't really remember the exact year,the timings of 1200 mtrs always used to be very fast & based on that, the winners of 1200 mtrs used to be piping hot favourites in their next run & used to bite the dust.Someexampleswere "Afsheen" from MP Jodha & "Lone Star" from CDK & another horse from N Lagad(don't remember the name),all bit the dust.This went on for more than two or three years after new monsoon track was laid.I realised something is really wrong & I started adding two seconds to the timing of 1200 mtrs winning time.My selections strike rate immediately started improving.Suddenly one day I read an article in Mid Day, that you actually went inside the race course & measured the distance of monsoon track & found it short by 30 or 35 mtrs.There after immediately RWITC clarified in their Gazette, that the monsoon track is short by 35 mtrs.Hats off to you, for your guess & timely action & saved crores of rupees of innocent public money.
I also have a doubt,that even the 1200 mtrs run on Main track is fast by about 0.9/1.0 second & the track is short by 15 mtrs.I do request you to take a call on this & expose the club if I'm right.
Yours truly
Madhu
Thank you Mr Rao for your kind words.
ReplyDeleteYes I remember the article you are talking about. It was titled "crack in the track", and was published in MiD DAY, after which the club made the correction offcial.
The 1,200m trip on the main track when I last measured it five years ago was 1,192 meters.
Wishing you the best.
Mr Ravi,
ReplyDeleteI request you to please keep track of the FINOO list and your method running concurrently, and check the strike rate after 50 to 100 bets to get a hint of what may lie in store if a FINOO choice is further filtered through your method.
Also, please keep records of your method's selections, filtered through the 3 FINOO qualifer rules, to see if their performance gets better or worse.
I will be interested in knowing the results.
Good luck.
Dear Prakash,
ReplyDeleteI think it is good beginning for the FINOO list,as per the data shown in the blog by the followers of it.
I suggest that if possible mention the TF & FF points along with your FINOO choices together with the TF & FF points of the nearest rivals of the same race.This will be more subjective in th ehands of the punters like us.
Please keep up the good work.