How FINOO was born: The logic and reason behind FINOO

First, the good news.

My FINOO reserach is complete and it may now be a matter of 8-10 days for back-testing of some results to be doubly sure of what works for FINOO and what doesn't. So be ready to welcome FINOO in its new, and hopefully, a better avatar.

Incidentally, on August 29, last year, I had written a mail to one of my students who was planning to come to Bombay to meet me, in which, for the first time, I discussed the reason and logic behind the FINOO (Follow-In-Next-Outing-Only) method.

One year and one public trial later, I am putting that mail on the home page today so that those among you, who may be wondering about the genesis of FINOO because they discovered this blog late, will get a fair idea as to how it all started, and decide for themselves if FINOO has lived up to the promise a year down the line.

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Dear XX,

You may try to contact me but I am likely to be in Pune on that day. Family function. However, nothing certain yet. So do phone me to find out.

Now about the FINOO (Follow-In-Next-Outing-Only) list which I would like you to look at as a NEW method of follow horses, unlike the traditional one.

The traditional method of follow horses was generally prepared before a race season began based on the performance of the earlier season. No current handicapping was then done, no files maintained. It's like what they call a paper & pencil method.

You just had a list of horses to follow through the season, and the idea was that you play them over the season (sometimes depending on your view of which distance suits the horse) and try to make profit. Whether this method really earned you profits or not was not really considered important—but the fact that you saved a lot of handicapping time, did not engage in too much betting action (because you would play only the list horses, no other horse) and did not put yourself under the stress of decision making (with the follow horses list, your decisions are made in advance) were considered great benefits.

Today, in the age of computers and algorithms, and speed numbers and pace ratings, and vet reports and change of equipments, the modern student of handicapping has ceased to enjoy racing the way his father and grandfather did.

Look at us! With the stress of monitoring track work, attending races, then watching the race video a number of times, preparing our files, putting in dynamic handicapping formulae, working out track variants, monitoring entries, handicaps and acceptances to have a peek into the trainer's mind (I sometimes wonder if most of them have one), checking track work to find out if it conforms to a trainer's "jobbing pattern" (whatever that means), and then after declarations—chew nails and pick hairs to make up your mind if there is a bet lurking in there somewhere and if it's going to make me some money. Nowadays, only thinking about it gives me the jitters, and when I stand in front of the mirror, I sometimes feel I am staring at the greatest idiot in the world.

What's the point in investing so much time to make so little money, and sometimes, NOT even make that?

With such thoughts crowding my mind all the time, I wondered if DH* & its insights can be harnessed to make life easier and still keep alive the possibility of making profits from this game. It was a long process, and there were many hurdles, it took nearly 4 months but finally I think I have managed it with the FINOO (Follow In Next Outing Only) list.

Why only next outing? Simple. DH is great at "estimating" current form with great accuracy. That's been our strongest point, so ideally we must bank on what sets us apart from the crowd, shouldn't we?

At the moment the results are absolutely great, without any "qualifier rule" for PLACE** betting. You will be shocked but 80+% strike rate seems to be the norm. However, the WIN profitability will NOT work unless we apply some qualifier rules as a filter. I am working on that right now. When that happens I will go for a public trial.

I think I am going to make Dynamic handicappers' life very easy, keep your fingers crossed:).

Prakash

*DH - Dynamic Handicapping

**Readers from the U.S. please note that PLACE in India means exactly what you call SHOW over there.