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FINOO list horses for Bangalore, Saturday card (May 30):
There are three horses on the Saturday (May 30) card that also figure on the FINOO (Follow-In-Next-Outing-Only) list:
Davenport (4-1)
a) Running at the same or similar level (A winner in Category II, 3y at Hyderabad, who beat five rivals in last start of which four were already winners, so at the rating of 59 given by the BTC handicapper, I think he is racing at similar level)
b) Running over the same trip (1600m)
c) Ridden by the same jockey (Harish)
Satisfies ALL conditions.
A WIN bet.
Chintz (5-2)
a) Running at the lower level (From a Terms, 3y, Gr 3, Million race to handicap class IV now)
b) Running over + or - 200m trip (1400m last time; 1200m now)
c) Ridden by a better jockey (PS Chouhan to Suraj Narredu)
Satisfies ALL conditions.
A WIN bet.
Aboline (6-4)
a) Running at the same or similar level (From Terms, 3y, Gr 3, Million to handicap, class II)
b) Running over the same trip (1400)
c) Ridden by the same jockey (C Alford)
Satisfies ALL conditions.
A WIN bet.
Good luck.
Davenport is sporting steel shoes.Your thoughts on this.
ReplyDeleteDear Prakash,
ReplyDeleteCan I place my selections . If Yes please let me know. Otherwise I simply admire your FINOO analysis and accept as they are.
At the same time I appreciate the pace at which your BLOG is receiving reviews as if you shifted gears of your campaign (FINOO)from HANDICAP TO GRADED RACES ravi hyd
Dear Ravi,
ReplyDeleteI would rather you posted your selections/opinion about the 4th, 5th & 6th races for which FINOO list horses have been discussed. That would be in keeping with the theme of this blog. I think you will appreciate this suggestion of mine.
Dear Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteOnce a FINOO list horse satisfies the three qualifier conditions, we neither analyze the other runners in the race nor do we look at other parameters like equipment/shoe change etc.
The whole idea of the FINOO concept is to shrink the time of study, reduce the labour involved in handicapping and still hope to have a decent strike rate (and perhaps profitability).
While I agree with you generally that Steel shoes is a big negative factor and Al shoes is a big positive factor, I would still refuse to take into consideration these things when a horse chooses itself as a bet on account of the FINOO list.
You will win some and lose some, as they say, and I am okay with it.
Mr Gosavi your reply to anomymous is interesting. But Davenport also has another negative. First run after gelding. I will be watching this race with interest. Good luck.
ReplyDeleteDavenport a hyd horse may not run well in Bangalore.
ReplyDeleteDear Prakash,
ReplyDeleteAs per your suggestion I place my selection for 4,5 & 6 races.
4th RACE - CORBETT WIN
5th RACE _ CHINTZ WIN
6th Race. ABOLINE win and SPARKS place
Regards
RAVI SHANKER HYD
absolutely amazing tool, thanks
ReplyDeleteThere was an error in earlier caclulation. Pl delete the same and display this posting.
ReplyDeleteI am just cutting n pasting by adding today's bets.
I am monitoring both place (without any qualifier) and WIN (after applying the qualifier rules), here are results so far.
PLACE bets (without qualifier)
Rs 1000/- per bet on tote at Bangalore*
No Horse Place paid (on Rs1000)
1. Balance De Power 1,200
2. Blue Danube 1,200
3. Moon Flower 2,100
4. Marine Zone 2,300
5. Czar Alexander -1,000
6. Up North 1,800
7. Secret Agenda 2,400
8. Golden Kingdom 1,100
9. Smoking Aces* -----
10. Born Special 2,200
11. The Giant 1,500
12. Pure Devotion -1,000
13. Devilitto 1,300
14. Trillion Win -1,000
15. Lush Lashes +1,200
16. Kripa +1,100
17. Greens -1,000
18. The Last Samurai +1,400
19. Mystic Quest +1,100
20. Sans Pareil +1,400
21. Davenport +2,900
22. Chintz +1,100
23. Aboline +1,200
-----------
25,500 Returns
Less 22,000 Investment
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3,500 Net profit
*No place pool in 3horse race.
Strike rate for PLACE bets 18 won/22 made = 81.8%
Return on investment (ROI) 3,500 net profit/22,000 invested = +15.9%
WIN bets (after applying qualifier rules)
Rs 1000/- per bet on tote at Bangalore
No Horse win paid (on Rs1000)
1. Balance De Power 1,400
2. Blue Danube 1,800
3. Golden Kingdom -1,000
4. Smoking Aces -1,000
5. The Giant 4,300
6. Pure Devotion -1,000
7. Devilitto +2,100
8. Trillion Win -1,000
9. Lush Lashes -1,000
10. Kripa +1,700
11. The Last Samurai -1,000
12. Mystic Quest +1,300
13. Sans Pareil +3,300
14. Davenport -1,000
15. Chintz +1,900
16. Aboline +1,900
-----------
18,700 Returns
Less 16,000 Investment
=========
2,700 Net profit
Strike rate for WIN bets 9 won/16 made = 56.3%
Return on investment (ROI) 2,700/16,000 = +16.9%
d'port was just not interested or he wud hv won 4 sure.
ReplyDeleteIn the morning I liked your confidence when you stuck to Davenport despite huge negative factors. You are definitely onto something very big Mr Gosavi. I am sure many had laughed (me too) when you claimed at the start that without the studying rivals you still expected to have a strike rate of 50% for win and 80% for place. No one ever heard it and no one sure talked like that. But so far your finoo is consistently maintaining that promise. I am very impressed. Keep up the good work. You might have discovered something that is very precious.
ReplyDelete