Attention vistiors

Due to the breakdown of our main computer today morning, we could not update some bloggers' selections on our toolbar as also the results & other information of today's races. We regret the inconvenience caused.

However, the problem is now rectified, and you can watch today's Bangalore races on our Race TV channel right now.

**Mr Gosavi**however had to leave for his usual Saturday evening time with cancer patients before the system was rectified. His

**selections for Sunday**therefore will have to wait until he returns, which could be anytime after 8.30 pm tonight.

Again, sorry for the inconvenience.

**Blog Moderator**

hey has PG returned from hospital? i dont hv comp @ home so i hv 2 hang 'round cyber cafe. pl reply blog M.

ReplyDeleteMr Gosavi's cellphone is unreachable so I can't say. May be he is with the patients still.

ReplyDeleteBlog Moderator

Mr Gosav this is Pasha here again. Can you explain this Mr Gosavi? This is a comment that appeared with your name on Swamybabu's blog. Or is it not really you?

ReplyDeleteIf it is really then earlier you write this article will be better for all.

FYI I cut and pase the msg:

"Good ratings Jimmy, keep it up.

Regarding your mention of the racing theory that favourite generally loses if a runner is declared non-starter, I wish to say that it is NOT just pure co-incidence. There is a whole science, with impeccable mathematical formulas based on Bayes' Law, named after Reverend Thomas Bayes who invented it in the 18th century.

The formula was discovered (written in Bayes' own handwriting) after his death when a friend tried to put in order Bayes' house (Rev Bayes was of course a bachelor) among his papers. Himself a mathematician, the friend was shocked by what he saw and sent it to the Royal Society).

The law (and its mathematical proof) is somewhat difficult to understand even for professional mathematicians, but not impossible. I fancy myself as endowed with decent math ability, but I needed close to a month to grasp the proof! But once you get the hang of it, it can do wonders for your understanding of a lot of things from our world, and definitely from the world of medicine (diagnostics) & gambling (probability & odds) in particular.

The greatest application of Bayes Law in recent times that a common man can easily understand (and appreciate) is the sudden reduction in SPAM messages in our e-mail account in recent years. You will remember about 10 years ago in the days of Hotmail, it was very difficult to filter out spam and we would get too many mails in our inbox. But in recent years (especially after google and gmail came onto the scene), we hardly have any spam in inbox and most of it is very intelligently sent to the SPAM folder. How did they do it? Simple. They started using an algorithm that uses Bayes Law to predict if a mail is SPAM or not, and the mighty accuracy of Bayes Law ensures that the results are 99.99% right!

For a long time I have planned to write an article on Bayes Law and its implications for gamblers, but either haven't found time or don't know how to simplify it for the general gambler. Maybe I will do it one day on my blog, and hope it will be sooner than later."

What happened to PG? Why is he in hospital?

ReplyDeletePG is not in hospital. He has gone to counsel cancer patients. Check his profile page then you will understand.

ReplyDeletePresently your selrctions are as acurate as before. Suggest, you concentrate on the main calculations only and do not confuse us giving tips of SHP, SHP and Place, etc.

ReplyDeletePlease give tips for WIN and Place only.

Aloke Dutta

Dear Desperate,

ReplyDeleteSorry for disappointing you yesterday. But I HAD to give time to what I thought was a more important job.

Dear Pasha,

Yes, I only wrote this response on Jimmy's blog because he mentioned that observation as 'theory'. I wanted to make it clear that it is a scientific fact which can be proved by using Bayes Law math. However, what I forgot to add there I will add here: It is applicable ONLY to favourites over Even money, or in other words, favs whose chances of winning are LESS than 50 percent. The on-money favs can defeat the Bayes Law as their individual probability of winning is more than 50%, and that is also MORE than the sum of probabilities of ALL the rivals in the fray. It's a bit complicated, and definitely against "common sense" or the "so-called logic", but it's mathematically perfect, I can assure you.

Dear Aloke Dutta,

Thanks. In fact today this blog is completing 3 months, so I am going to analyze its performance tomorrow, and may take some decisions related to its content in the near future.

Aloke Dutta its a matter of "like it then take it or else leave it"....

ReplyDelete