Wednesday, August 19, 2009

FINOO bets for Mysore (Thursday, August 20)

FINOO bets for Mysore (Thursday, August 20):

Penny Tweedy (2-5)
2nd race: 4.BIRTHDAY STAR (1)

Time For All (5-10)
5th race: 10.TIME FOR ALL (1)


  1. MrGosavi how can penny tweedy be finoo bet? From suraj narredu last time to Md shoib. Is that better jockey? I think you hv made a mistake. Or hv you changed therules?

  2. Dear Anonymous,
    No, tipping Penny Tweedy is NOT an oversight or a mistake.

    When we say a good jockey or a bad jockey, we mean only his form, and nothing else. I have, on my computer, an algorithm in an excel file (devised in some crazy moment, I must say) that automatically tracks the "CURRENT" form of a jockey, irrrespecitve of what his long-term form may be.

    If you check the records, Suraj Narredu was perhaps at his worst form at the Bangalore/Mysore circuit during the four days between 28th & 31st July. He rode I think 17 mounts but won with only 2 of them. That's a strike rate of less than 12% for the said period. And it is in this period, with THAT form, he rode Penny Tweedy on 28th July at Mysore, and lost. When I compare jockey form, I don't compare their "reputations", but I compare their "riding form on the day", which, for Suraj Narredu on July 28, was really, really bad. By contrast, Mohammed Shoaib won two of his four races on the same day at Mysore, so tomorrow, when he rides Penny Tweedy, I take into account his riding form vis-a-vis Suraj Narredu on 28th July. And when I see that he has ridden 4 of his 5 mounts in the first week IN THE MONEY (3 of them second), I can safely assume he will ride Penny Tweedy better than what Suraj Narredu had ridden on July 28. So for me, this is in fact a POSITIVE JOCKEY SWITCH as far as the RIDING FORM is concerned (not riding CLASS, I must say, to avoid confusion).

    It is another matter that going by the night odds, Birthday Star (B Prakash up) appears as a lion among sheep. But as you know and as I have explained N times, FINOO doesn't care a damn about rivals in the race. So Penny Tweedy IS A FINOO BET TOMORROW, whether she runs at 10 to 1 or 100 to 1.

  3. I agree with your logic Mr Prakash. I will bet PT.

  4. Prakash , I have serious doubts that Penny Tweddy can win tomorrow, (Umeed jayada bharosa kum )I think that while short cuts and ease of picking winners by a strict and quick method is fine, It is your insistence that you do not care about the other runners and their POTENTIAL that might need some tinkering, as first and foremost , it is a race and there are others running also. I hope you get my point

  5. Thanks P Shiva.

    Dear Aswin,
    FINOO's primary goals are to spend minimum time on race study, keep minimal data on horses, cut back time spent on handicapping/analysis, and reduce decision making stress (by having mechanical rules to go by).

    This investigation (public trial) is to check if FINOO may, after 100% fulfilling the primary goals, also lead to profits or not.

    As you say, it is true that some FINOO bets may be pitched against far superior rivals, and therefore, will do badly. But that will only reduce the strike rate of FINOO to some extent. This public trial is to see if FINOO can show flat-bet profit despite such instances.

    Just to avoid such obvious losing instances, if I start keeping data on ALL the runners at EVERY center, it will defeat the basic purpose of FINOO's existence.

  6. Where is RUCHI disappeared.Hope alls well at his end.

  7. Rohit,
    He seems to have been put off by negative comments. He has to learn to deal with such people either by ignoring them or taking them to task with the use of technology. I may call him in the evening to check that all is well with him.

  8. Thought for the Day are so true very well said.

  9. In the whole world, a racetrack is the only place where the windows clean the people and LEAVE A HOLE IN THE POCKET AS WELL....

  10. With this win I hope Finoo has changed course.

  11. Aswin,
    Not really. Only one winner from 4. Still too bad. I got a call today from a guy who says that he is so unlucky and a chronic loser that he had lost all hopes of ever winning at the races. Then someone told him about FINOO, and he was impressed by what he saw on this blog. And guess what? He started following FINOO precisely from Aug 7 with Sun Classique! He sounded very apologetic and said he is going to Canada tonight, so he can't bet from tomorrow for 3 weeks, and he challenged me that FINOO should do well only because HIS MONEY WOULD NOT BE ON. I really felt sorry for the guy and told him I don't believe in this kind of superstition. But he said he strongly believes FINOO luck would change from tomorrow.

    Now what can I say about such belief? By chance if FINOO performance really improves from tomorrow, I am sure he is going to get at my throat with "I told you so!" after he comes back. LOL.

  12. Dear Mr. Prakash

    I may be late in commenting (probably after the races) As I was busy with a meeting and I couldn't go for the races today. But whenever B. Prakash is riding the jockey's namely (Md. Shoiab, Md Shafiq, Narsimha, Raja Rao, Lakshmikant & I forgot one or two names here)they never try against him as they were all part of MAM brand. So definitely Penny tweedy with Shoaib will not try against BP

    If it was Gnaneshwar then there was a chance


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