Tomorrow morning if you wake up after dreaming that England have won the toss at the Oval and have elected to field, skip the washroom and head straight for your computer. If your clairvoyance is above average, this could be your chance to make $14 profit for every dollar that you bet.
And what if you dream the reverse? What if the Aussies won the toss and put England to bat? Not a problem. You can still hope to make the killing at the same rate!
Sounds improbable?
Welcome to the strange but lucrative world of gambling where both these options offer you the odds of nearly 14 to 1.
But mind you, these handsome odds are not floated by someone who dreamt the opposite.
These odds were set by the best professional brains in the business of bookmaking. These human computers, odds-makers as they are generally called, are extremely sharp-minded statisticians who are specially trained in the science of probabilities of complex events that involve multiple possibilities and outcomes.
In a nutshell, the odds-makers have a very strong opinion about the Oval test: They are pretty certain that the team that will win the toss will elect to bat first.
Why?
Again, the reasons could be many and varied—the weather forecast, the past statistical history, the experts' advice, the grounds man’s opinion, or the two captains’ personal preferences—whatever. It's a complex, motley mix, and the odds-makers' job is to use their high training and advanced algorithm to process all that information and convert it into a number that defines the probability of a particular choice.
Once that is done, setting odds is child's play.
There is a very elementary formula that is used to covert probability to odds, and it is this:
Odds = (1/p) - 1
[where ‘p’ is the probability of the outcome expressed as a decimal value between 0 & 1]
For example, if the weather bureau says there is a 20% (expressed as a decimal value, it would be 0.2) chance of rain on the third day of the Oval test, and odds-makers agree, they will offer* you the odds of 4 to 1 if you want to put your money where the weather burea's mouth is [just check how this works out: Odds = (1/p) - 1 = (1/0.2) - 1 = (10/2) - 1 = 5 - 1 = 4].
(*Of course, in the real world they will offer you slightly less than 4 to 1, but that's because the company that employs the oddsmakers has to pay their high salaries, and make a small profit on top of it, to stay in business.)
Coming back to tomorrow's Oval test, it can really be very educative if one pays attention to how these experts have set the odds for various betting options and outcomes.
Test result
| Outcome | Odds | Chance |
| Win for England | 4.2 to 1 | 19% |
| Win For Australia | 1.6 to 1 | 38% |
| The Draw | 1.3 to 1 | 43% |
Toss & decision
| Outcome | Odds | Chance |
| England to win & bat | 1.23 to 1 | 44% |
| England to win & field | 14 to 1 | 6% |
| Australia to win & bat | 1.23 to 1 | 44% |
| Australia to win & field | 14 to 1 | 6% |
Top scorer – First Innings (Australia)
| Batsman | Odds | Chance |
| Shane Watson | 5 to 1 | 16% |
| Simon Katich | 5 to 1 | 16% |
| Ricky Ponting | 3.8 to 1 | 21% |
| Michael Hussey | 5.6 to 1 | 15% |
| Michael Clarke | 4.8 to 1 | 17% |
| Any other batsman | 5.5 to 1 | 15% |
Top scorer – First Innings (England)
| Batsman | Odds | Chance |
| Andrew Strauss | 3.7 to 1 | 21% |
| Alastair Cook | 4.4 to 1 | 19% |
| Ian Bell | 6 to 1 | 14% |
| Paul Collingwood | 6.5 to 1 | 13% |
| Jonathan Trott | 6 to 1 | 14% |
| Any other batsman | 4.2 to 1 | 19% |
Had a good look at these tables?
Now let’s change the script of that dream you are going to have before waking up tomorrow morning, and imagine you are going to “see” England winning the toss and elect to field (14 to 1), Michael Hussy top-scoring for Australia in the first innings (5.6 to 1), then Paul Collingwood becoming the highest scorer for England in the first innings (6.5 to 1), then rain interrupting the match on the third day (4 to 1), and England finally winning the test (4.2 to 1), do you know how much that dream would be worth if it comes true?
Collectively, you will be paid at the astronomical odds of 19,304 for one dollar. It means if you want to become a millionaire, all you need is $52 & a clairvoyant dream.
So if you wake up tomorrow morning after such a dream, you know where to rush—surely not to the washroom.
(Please note: This is not just an exercise in wishful imagination. In sports betting history, someone actually dreamt the result of a football match and profited from it—here is the link to that story:http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/
Lovely article Mr Gosavi. But do you also advise bets on cricket? Who do you think will win this test?
ReplyDeleteSheikh,
ReplyDeleteNo, neither do I bet on cricket nor do I advise a bet on any game where I feel the chance will most times outplay skill.
This article was written for a leading Cricket website, but for some reason related to mis-communication and deadline, could not go through. So I thought I will just put it up on my blog, that's all.
hi sir how r u?
ReplyDeletesir can u plz give me the e mail id of ruchi sir. no posting from their side. is everything all right?
thanks & regards
Dear prakash sir, what happened to ruchi . Waiting for his valuable selections .
ReplyDeleteNeelaghoda, KN Kumar & Rohit (on another post),
ReplyDeleteI can understand your concern about Ruchi's (Jitendra Rawell) sudden silence on his blog. I called him today morning, he said he had to go to Calcutta on official trip (he works for an MNC), and got too busy there so he could not access net. You should hear from him on his blog hopefully tonight.