Tuesday, November 05, 2013

This game CAN be beaten



Dear friends,

In December 2011, I entered into a five-season contract to write The Prakash Gosavi column, a column analyzing races and recommending bets on the Royal Western India Turf Club's (RWITC) official web site. With four seasons over and only the final season to go, my performance was reviewed recently for the benefit of the column's followers. 

Here is the article that discussed the performance, which turned a 1k bet (from a capital base of Rs 10,000) into close to 100,000 in only 22 months.

If you don't have time to read the entire article, you can just click this link to look at the performance sheet. 

And now, the most incredible part. Remember that money management formula I devised for the stock market which was actually based on my money management research related to racing?

Well, if one had started with the same 1k bet, but instead of betting only 1k on each horse, if one had used my money management formula, what would have been the result?

Check out THIS LINK. 

Enjoy. Here is wishing a very happy and profitable new year to you and your family, 

Prakash Gosavi


6 comments:

  1. Dear Sir,

    Firstly congratulations for the phenomenal success of this wonderful column.

    It is amazing to see the kind of profit we would have made by just following your selections.

    It is very sad to note that the Mumbai season would be the last season for this amazing column.

    There is so much that I have personally learnt, so much so that I have cut down my bets to less than 10% of races.

    The one thing that I am still not able to overcome is the fear factor,for example:after losing 3 successive bets I would definitely give the fourth one a miss which would turn out to be a winner. I know when we put it on paper it profitable but the courage needed at the time of action is commendable and rare. I always feel it would have been much better if the bets could have been programmed with definite instructions.

    Please keep us informed as to how can we keep following you!!

    One small observation: After the 79th bet the betting pattern has changed to flat bets. Any specific reason?

    Thank you very much.

    Regards,
    K.B.Reddy

    P.S.: I tried putting the same on RWITC website several times but it throws an error saying invalid code.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The formula I have devised (after many years of painstaking research) automatically works out the next bet amount after the result of the last bet is known. It's a complicated formula which takes into account your expected and actual strike rate, current losing or winning streak, the average odds on your winners, and in general the movement of your WIN-LOSS matrix (like WWLLLWLLWLL etc), and then applies extremely counter-intuitive Bayesian logic to work out the optimum bet size for the next bet. I think my formula can really work wonders for any gambler who is a flat-bet winner. If you get the impression that after the 79th bet the formula is getting into flat-betting, I can assure you that may just be an illusion, because it is just too complicated to do that on purpose.

      Delete
  2. Dear sir,
    I would like to say only one thing about you i.e."can't imagine racing without reading your column"
    That's true sir ever since I started racing (2011,Mumbai season) I am following your selections and have earned good profit even if you did not recommend for bet. Your theories are unbeatable and unique.
    Like many others I will also surely miss your selections after this coming Mumbai season.
    I request you to please continue your analysis even after Mumbai season ends and please inform us regarding the same.
    Wish you best of luck for coming season and continue your good work for as long as possible.

    Thanking you,
    Regards
    Dharmesh

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you for your kind words. All I can say is that God (and luck!) has been more than kind.

      Delete
  3. Dear Sir,

    Nice to see that how much profit your selection earned during last few seasons. I seen your money management sheet but not able to understand how you calculate your next bet amount after winning and / or loosing the horse.

    I would really appreciate if you kindly elaborate the same. thanks and regards
    S P Singh

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please refer to the response I have written to Bharath Reddy above, that should explain the thing.

      Delete

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