Golden Kingdom (in black shirt) finished a length second to Marine Zone who was, ironically, struck off the FINOO list only a week ago as per the qualifier conditions [pic: rwitc]There are four horses from the FINOO ("Follow-In-Next-Outing-Only") list running on Sunday's card; they are:
Secret Agenda (1-7)
Golden Kingdom (4-2)
Smoking Aces (7-3) &
Born Special (9-9)
Secret Agenda:
a) Running at the same or lower level (ran in class V, 0-26; now running in same class, but at even lower level 0-19)
b) running over the same trip (1200m)
c) with inferior jockey? (Again, this call is difficult. Because SN Chavan who rode last time never had any form to speak of this season, so there may not really be much difference between him and Satish Nayak, who on occasions, rides quite well; but as usual, I will err on the cautious side).
Satisfies only 2 of the 3 conditions.
No WIN bet, strike off the FINOO list.
Golden Kingdom:
a) Running at the same level (Ran in class V last time, now actually in higher class IV; but the top rated horse in the race is at 32, only 6 points over last time’s class level, so more or less running at the same or similar level although the label technically says class IV)
b) running over the same trip (1200m)
c) with the same or better jockey (Again, apprentice NS Parmar who rode GK last time had scored a hat-trick of wins just a week before and was “regressing to the mean form” with every ride thereafter. Today’s jockey AM Tograllu is attempting to regain form—his effort astride Forest Native today (who tried to renew his challenge at 200m against a superior horse) was good. and it indicates that he may be relied upon for a good effort from the saddle tomorrow.
Satisfies ALL 3 conditions.
A WIN bet.
Smoking Aces:
a) Running at the same level (3y)
b) running over a +200m trip (1200m today from 1000 last time)
c) with the same jockey (YS Srinath)
Satisfies ALL 3 conditions.
A WIN bet.
Born Special:
a) Running at the same level (Class IV)
b) running over a +200m trip (1800m today from 1600 last time)
c) with inferior jockey (From Daniel Grant to Dasrath Singh)
Satisfies only 2 of the 3 conditions.
No WIN bet, strike off the FINOO list.
So finally only two bets for the day: Golden Kingdom & Smoking Aces.
Good luck.
thank you master.
ReplyDeletei hope golden kingdom will have good price.
smoking aces may be fav.
good luck sir.
yours truly
original fanofmaster
Mr Gosavi I had a friend whom this jockey Satish Nayak used to give tips last year. Should I find out if Secret Agenda is a jobber tomrorow and report for your readers?
ReplyDeleteSomeone just told me the odds on golden kingdom are 1.75 and smoking aces Evens. Thought I will inform your readers. Btw an excellent blog Mr Gosavi. Good luck.
ReplyDeleteDear Mr Gosavi
ReplyDeleteI think the odds mentioned by anonymous above are slightly off the mark. I was given 1.5 for GK & evens for SA. But I like the fact that you have the guts to be true to your finoo list and post before the night odds open. Then whether it is secret agenda or smoking aces you go by your principles and offer comments. There are many who check odds and their movements and then offer tips. You are a refreshing change. I wish your blog the best, and wish well personally to you.
sir whats the meaning of "and was “regressing to the mean form” with every ride thereafter". I hv not heard before. Wud like 2 know.
ReplyDeletecan anyone say why indiarace is down since yesterday? someone told me virus problem. then it means even my machine has virus? because i am getting message on my machine that i have virus. mr gosavi can you or ssomebody explain?
ReplyDeleteDear Mr Gosavi your blog is extremely addictive.
ReplyDeleteLast three days I have sent hours n hours reading and rereading ur articles. I have a suggestion. Pl make it a point everyday to write at lest one fresh para on your home page even if racing is not on. Tat will be the best start for the day for many like me.
Thank u for the great experience.
Preetam
We are given to understand Indiarace is down because of a virus attack. However, they are trying their best to try to be online as soon as possible.
ReplyDelete~Moderator
Query by Anonymous: "whats the meaning of "and was “regressing to the mean form” with every ride thereafter". I hv not heard before. Wud like 2 know."
ReplyDeleteMy response: "Regression to the mean" is a concept that is based on reality, and therefore all decision makers--and especially gamblers, speculators and investors--have to take it very seriously. I would like to write an article on this topic some day soon, but until then I will give one example to explain.
If you toss a coin, and each toss is considered as one trial, then as the number of trials goes on increasing, both heads and tails will get closer to their real probability values of 0.5 over time. For example, if in the first 10 tosses, there are 8 heads and only 2 tails, that does not mean the probability of heads is 0.8 and of tails is 0.2, the probability still remains at 0.5 and as the trials continue both the figures (0.8 & 0.2) will "regress" to the mean (average) value of 0.5 as the number of trials go up.
Golden Kingdom with ridden by tograllu non regular for lagad.Why risk a bet at these odds.
ReplyDeletei do feel that Smokin Aces will not be able to put it across the katrak wards.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI agree with addictive gambler that golden kingdom with togralu at this price could be risky. But since you don't give any consideration even to rivals, I can understand you obviously don't look at the price either if the horse is on your alleged finoo list. All this against every principle of established wisdom on the subject, and generally I would blast it. But in your case, I am making the exception because you come across as very intelligent in all other things barring finoo list. And since the search for the sureshot formula to win long term over races is still on all over the world, I will not attack you without giving you a fair trial. I have always fancied myself as contrarian, but compared to you, I feel I am conservative.
ReplyDeleteOnly time will tell if your ideas deserve respect and I am ready to wait. But for the life of me I cannot help thinkng how this could be possible, having a high strike race of 40 or 50% long term.
I want to ask you one question Gosavi.
ReplyDeleteThe concept of follow horses is nothing new. So you are not coming out with any earth shattering idea in the first place.
But this business of "follow only in next outing or discard" is what has raised the eyebrows.
Why should the horse be discarded from the list if it has showed up as a possible winner? Doesn't it deserve another chance?
Maybe with a better jockey or over right distance next time?
I hope you are getting what I mean.
Thank you Sadanand Patkar for expressing the view that FINOO concept needs a fair trial.
ReplyDeleteYes Curious No End, I can understand what you mean, but that's the way it is. Look, if you give second chance to a horse because it failed the first time, then after your second bet on the same horse, your strike rate at best is going to be 50% (1 win from 2 attempts) or 0% (no win from both attempts). That, in the long run, is going to force you way down the 50% win percentage level for which, at least theoretically, you have to strive.
I hope now you get MY point.
See m gosavi i raised this point just today, and marine zone, the horse you discarded just last week because of a weak jockey and struck off the finoo list came out with a strong jockey and beat another horse on your list.
ReplyDeleteI agree to your point that investing twice on the same horse may not be a great idea, but today marine zone ran at 4/1, so your average odds is 2/1. very decent odds if you ask me.
In fact i find your system amazing if it had on list horses like moon flower, marine zone and today secret agenda who all ran good races even with non jobber riders. maybe you need to fine tune your qualifying conditions.
pl think it over.
gosavi sir addictive gambler was bang on target about your assessment.
ReplyDeletei had a mind to support him.
but you made clear this system is mechanical in application.
then i agree you have to be consistent whatver the results.
4 bets 2 win 2 loss
best luck for next week.
yours turly
original fanofmaster
GK got a horrendous ride, not ur fault
ReplyDeletebut SA was a loser all the way.
i think ur mistake was not 2 accept that ns parmar is very good rider n a togralu is very bad. by ur own rules it doesnt bcome a bet. then y u chose? u hv 2 blame urself.
ReplyDeleteur bad ur bad ur bad. when do u admit that?
ReplyDeleteafter everybody wiped out? take my ip an ban me. i dont care. i not comin here anyway. who wants to loose? bad recesion. no one has money. bye.
How can you tip anything with the same initials SA? Are you out of your mind? When Set Alight couldnt win, how can smokin aces?
ReplyDeleteI am the guru of the jhumanis whom whole film industry consults.
Next time first ask me and then tip.
I am surprised by the outburst here when you just have one bad day. And I agree with Anonymous who said GK got a horrendous ride, the poor jock just went with the suicidal pace, then couldn't keep the animal straight when it mattered. A certain winner if there was one. Bad luck is all I say.
ReplyDeleteAbout Smoking Aces the run was just too bad. Period.
I am not sure you are doing the right thing by publishing these abuses of these anonymous monkeys, I mean why offer yourself to be stoned by all the sinners? But then its your site so you are the boss.
I will be watching this blog with interest on Friday to Sunday next.
Irshad Shaikh, Vashi
Dear Prakash sir
ReplyDeletei am pasting the mail u sent me last year that changed my life completely. pl read carefully what u said abt PLACE betting. I just dont understand why u have to add qualifier n condition n filter & go for win betting when place betting works so good?
----
date Fri, Aug 29, 2008 at 4:10 PM
subject Finoo list
mailed-by gmail.com
hide details 4:10 PM Reply
Dear CP,
You may try to contact me but I am likely to be in Pune on that day. Family function. However nothing certain yet. So do phone me to find out.
Now about the FINOO list which I would like you to look at as a NEW method of follow horses, unlike the traditional one.
The traditional method of follow horses was generally prepared before a race season began based on the performance of the earlier season. No current handicapping was then done, no files maintained. It's like what they call a paper & pencil method.
You just had a list of horses to follow through the season, and the belief was that if you play them over the saeson (sometimes depending on your view of which distance suits the horse) and try to make profit. Whether this method earned you profits or not was not really considered important--but the fact that you saved lot of handicapping time, did not engage in too much betting action (coz you would play only the list horses, no other horse) and did not put yourself under the stress of decision making (with follow horse list your decisions are made in advance) were considered great benefits.
Today, in the age of computers and algorithms, and speed numbers and pace ratings, and vet reports and change of equipments, the modern student of handicapping has ceased to enjoy racing the way his fathers and grandfathers did.
Look at us! With the stress of monitoring track work, attending races, then watching video number of times, preparing our files, putting in dynamic handicapping formuale, working out track variants, monitoring entries, handicaps and acceptances to have a peek into the trainer's mind (I sometimes wonder if most of them have one), checking track work to find out if it conforms to a trainer's "jobbing pattern" (whatever that means), and then after declarations chew nails and pick hairs to make up your mind if there is a bet lurking in there somewhere and if it's going to make me some money. Nowadays, only thinking about it gives me the jitters, and when I stand in front of the mirror, I sometimes feel I am staring at the greatest idiot in the world.
What's the point in investing so much time to make so little money, and sometimes, NOT even making that?
With such thoughts crowding my mind all the time I wondered if DH & its insights can be harnessed to make life easier and still keep alive the possibility of making profits from this game. It was a long process, and there were many hurdles, it took nearly 4 months but finally I think I have managed it with the FINOO (Follow In Next Outing Only) list.
Why only next outing? Simple. DH is great at "estimating" current form with great accuracy. That's been our strongest point, so ideally we must bank on what sets us apart form the crowd, shouldn't we?
At the moment the results are absolutely great, without any "qualifier rule" for PLACE betting. You will be shocked but 80+% strike rate seems to be the norm. However, the WIN profitability will NOT work unless you apply some qualifier rules as a filter. I am working on that right now. When that happens I will go for a public trial.
I think I am going to make Dynamic handicappers' life very easy, keep your fingers crossed:).
Prakash
---
Dear CP,
ReplyDeleteThanks for a reminder:)
Do check and keep track of place bets results if you wish, but I believe that WIN betting must any day give greater ROI if the qualifier rules are formulated and fine tuned perfectly, which I think I have done, and therefore this public trial. Please have patience until we stack up 50 to 100 bets and then we will compare both place (without qualifier) and win (with qualifier filters) results and compare if any of them is profitable, and if both are, then which one is giving out better ROI.
Yes, I do agree there is zero decision making involved in place bets because you don't need to tax your brains even to check if particular conditions apply. You just blindly bet the FINOO horse to place and that's it.
Dear Mr Irshad Shaikh,
ReplyDeleteWhen one offers oneself for public scrutiny, one should be prepared for both bouquets and brickbats. As long as the language and content are in keeping with the policy of this blog, I don't mind.
"monitoring entries, handicaps and acceptances to have a peek into the trainer's mind (I sometimes wonder if most of them have one),"
ReplyDeletei just loved it.
great blog prakash,
Keep it up.
Boss I told u i was right. Pl pay attention.
ReplyDeleteNo qualifier no filter only follow finoo for place
Rs 1000/- per bet on tote at Bangalore
No Horse Place paid (on Rs1000)
1. Balance De Power 1,200
2. Blue Danube 1,200
3. Moon Flower 2,100
4. Marine Zone 2,300
5. Czar Alexander -1,000
6. Up North 1,800
7. Secret Agenda 2,400
8. Golden Kingdom 1,100
9. Smoking Aces* -----
10. Born Special 2,200
-----------
13,300 Returns
Less 9,000 Investment
=========
4,300 Net profit
*No place pool in 3horse race.
Strike rate for PLACE bets 8/9 = 88.9%
Return on investment (ROI) 4300/9000 = 47.8%
who gives this kind of success rate and roi? Why are you adamant on WIN when u can rob the tote for place? Its beyond me.
No disrespet, ijust hate it when they abuse u.
Dear Gosavi and CP
ReplyDeleteBy mistake I put this post on Katrak page, so I am putting it here again.
I have read and reread your exchange a number of times. I am frankly shocked at the results. They are just great. I know the sample is small, but the fact that gosavi confidently predicted a strike rate of over 80% for place, and his public trial confirms it speaks volumes about the underlying class of his thinking and theory. I take my words back mr gosavi for doubting you, and pray to god to contineu to give you divine insights (what else can explain such performance?) to get things right for win betting also. However I (like CP) don't see any need or reason for it when place performance can be so solid.
My best wishes to you at all times
Sadanand Patkar
Sir ji
ReplyDeletei am unable to under stand what is finoo is i think Ur giving selections on the basis of the horse is going on extra distance first time i followed Ur selection on Sunday it has given me Jataka but every day is not Sunday i will follow Ur selections after all we betting on animals.
venkat
again a class v race is choosen & it going to flop
ReplyDeletegr8 predicter