Bullshit & Horse sense

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FINOO breaks all records

Note: Please click the link "FINOO public trial (13 weeks)" before you proceed further.

What you are going to read now, my request is to please treat it as just an academic exercise.

No one should read too much into it, and this is no attempt to show that racing could be a more lucrative avenue for serious personal investors. The reason is, at present, in our country, racing industry's betting pools and figures are just no match to the size and volume of the financial markets.

However, that does not give the so-called "elite" players of the financial markets (who fancy themselves as investors and look down upon us as gamblers) a right to snigger at us racing folks, especially when on a personal front, most of them are much bigger losers than we racing folks have been.

This exercise must be veiwed in proper perspective. At least for personal investment of a small nature, the power of a winning system in racing (in this case, FINOO) can put to shame the results of the most sought after categories of the financial markets including Sensex, Nifty, Gold and US dollar.

And as you know, these figures are not contrived or doctored. This trial was as open and public as a billboard at a busy traffic junction, and you all have witnessed its stupendous success.

So the next time someone who plays the stock market or invests in gold or the US dollar quizzes you about where you invest, take a deep breath to swell your chest and say with pride, "I play the horses."

FINOO bets (PUNE, Friday, July 24)

FINOO list horses for Friday (July 24), Pune races

PRIME BET:

WIN only:

Expensive Affair (1-4)

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FINOO Experimental bets

WIN & PLACE:

None (Earlier Golden Kingdom by mistake was placed under this category)

SHP & PLACE:

Golden Kingdom (2-3)

PLACE only:

Johnny Bravo (1-7)

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Bookies' Delights

None

Note: Barring Riyasat, which is quoted at 60/100, no other favorite in any other race can be said to have irrational odds. I think Riyasat should be 90/100 or Evens (it has a little better than 50% chance of winning this race, I think.) So the odds may be a bit irrational, but I can't recommend laying against a horse which is my first choice for the race.

Sunday races (April 26) Cond...

Golden Kingdom (in black shirt) finished a length second to Marine Zone who was, ironically, struck off the FINOO list only a week ago as per the qualifier conditions [pic: rwitc]

There are four horses from the FINOO ("Follow-In-Next-Outing-Only") list running on Sunday's card; they are:

Secret Agenda (1-7)

Golden Kingdom (4-2)

Smoking Aces (7-3) &

Born Special (9-9)

 

Secret Agenda: 

a) Running at the same or lower level (ran in class V, 0-26; now running in same class, but at even lower level 0-19)

b) running over the same trip (1200m)

c) with inferior jockey? (Again, this call is difficult. Because SN Chavan who rode last time never had any form to speak of this season, so there may not really be much difference between him and Satish Nayak, who on occasions, rides quite well; but as usual, I will err on the cautious side). 

Satisfies only 2 of the 3 conditions. 

No WIN bet, strike off the FINOO list.

 

Golden Kingdom: 

a) Running at the same level (Ran in class V last time, now actually in higher class IV; but the top rated horse in the race is at 32, only 6 points over last time’s class level, so more or less running at the same or similar level although the label technically says class IV)

b) running over the same trip (1200m)

c) with the same or better jockey (Again, apprentice NS Parmar who rode GK last time had scored a hat-trick of wins just a week before and was “regressing to the mean form”  with every ride thereafter. Today’s jockey AM Tograllu is attempting to regain form—his effort astride Forest Native today (who tried to renew his challenge at 200m against a superior horse) was good. and it indicates that he may be relied upon for a good effort from the saddle tomorrow.

Satisfies ALL 3 conditions. 

A WIN bet.

 

Smoking Aces: 

a) Running at the same level (3y)

b) running over a +200m trip (1200m today from 1000 last time)

c) with the same jockey (YS Srinath)  

Satisfies ALL 3 conditions.  

A WIN bet.

 

Born Special: 

a) Running at the same level (Class IV)

b) running over a +200m trip (1800m today from 1600 last time)

c) with inferior jockey (From Daniel Grant to Dasrath Singh) 

Satisfies only 2 of the 3 conditions. 

No WIN bet, strike off the FINOO list.

 

So finally only two bets for the day: Golden Kingdom & Smoking Aces.

Good luck.