Follow horses for Saturday (April 18)

Balance De Power (Neeraj Rawal up), carrying Mr Shyam Ruia's silks, being led in after winning the Nawabzada Rashiduzzafar Khan trophy by trainer Nosher Cama (extreme left) and the Shroff family [pic: rwitc archives]

I am going to talk only about horses that have been on my "Follow-In-Next-Outing-Only" list, or FINOO list.  There are certrain parameters based on Dynamic handicapping that single out these horses on "current" form (last run) only for the "next" run.

Unlike the horse from the usual "Follow horses" list that is tracked for all runs until the end of the season, a horse in the FINOO list is followed ONLY in the NEXT run, and is bet only for WIN, provided it satisfies the following conditions:

a. Runs at the same or lower level;

b. Runs over a trip that is either same, or plus or minus 200m

c. Has either the same or better jockey

Note: If a horse does not satisfy ALL conditions, then not only it is NOT bet this time, but is actually taken off the list!

The interesting thing about horses from this list is that if a horse satisfies all three conditions, then you have to bet for WIN without giving any thought to rivals! Now that's something the handicappers just can't get themselves to do as it goes against their every instinct and all the handicapping wisdom in the world. But the truth is the FINOO list horses generally outperform best handicappers over the long run, have a high strike rate, and most importantly, are great time savers.

There are four horses from the "Follow-In-Next-Outing-Only" list running on Saturday's card, and they are:

Balance De Power (2-2)

Blue Danube (3-3)

Moon Flower (4-8) &

Marine Zone (5-2)

Balance De Power: 

a) Running at the same level (ran in class II, 5y&over last time, now running in open class II, but since there is no 4 year old in the fray, the race is effectively 5y&over like last time), 

b) running over 200m longer trip (1600 from 1400m)

c) with the same jockey (Neeraj Rawal). 

Satisfies ALL conditions. 

A WIN bet.

Blue Danube: 

a) Running at the same level (3y)

b) running over the same trip (1000m)

c) with the same jockey (NG McCullagh). 

Satisfies ALL conditions. 

A WIN bet.

 

Moon Flower: 

a) Running at the same level (3y)

b) running over the same trip (1400m)

c) with inferior jockey (Dasrath Singh in place of M Narredu). 

Satisfies only 2 of the 3 conditions. 

No bet, strike off the FINOO list.

Marine Zone: 

a) Running at the same or lower level (open class V last time, this time same class but only 4y)

b) running over the same trip (1400m)

c) with inferior jockey? (Now this is a call which is difficult. Who is better--Walkar of last time or Mani of today? For those who think Mani is better than Walkar, this horse becomes a bet. I cannot decide confidently, so I will err on the cautious side). 

Satisfies only 2 of the 3 conditions. 

No bet, strike off the FINOO list.

So finally only two bets for the day: Balance De Power & Blue Danube

Good luck.