Notable Runner (Shammi Khan up) being led in by trainer Magansingh Jodha and son Adhiraj. My choice in the race, Pure Devotion, ran such a dismal race it was not sighted in the straight. [pic: rwitc archives]Yet again, there is only ONE horse on the FINOO list which also figures on the Saturday card tomorrow. I wish the horse had run today (Friday), becasue it's his birthday today. Anyway, if he gives his connections and my followers some go at profit, I am sure we will not mind celebrating his birthday belatedly.
But will he oblige? Well, that question will be answered tomorrow (Saturday) after the 7th race on the card is run at 5.30 pm. Let's keep our fingers crossed, because he has to brave an almost 2-month absence from the racetrack.
Pure Devotion (7-8)
a) Running at the same level (5y & over in class IV)
b) running over the same trip (1400m)
c) has the same or better jockey (Samuel Fargeat who rode last time was not at all in any great form, 2 wins from 18 mounts; and Dasrath Singh who rides now has hit a useful "timely" form when he rode a back-to-back double on today's card. I don't have any hesitation in proclaiming him as "good or better than Fargeat" for this ride.)
Satisfies ALL 3 conditions.
A WIN bet.
P.S.: As I said yesterday, Curious No End has made a special request to publicly mention if any horses on the day's card have either been struck off the FINOO list last time or have just missed making the list. To honour his request, here I put them:
Struck off from the list after last run:
None
And just missed making the FINOO list:
Clarion Call (8-9)
Good luck.
Where are your detractors Mr Gosavi? It's 4 hours and this is the first post of yours there is no comment yet. Ithink you have really silenced them. Well done.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, good luck for Pure Devotion, it's 5 to 1 for win/
Rajesh B
This race is extremely competitive. No horse can be a bet in such races.
ReplyDeleteYour blog is delightful & your writing style unmatched. Wish you the best to keep it going.
ReplyDeleteI was just going through your records mr gosavi and I saw all your winners have won by at least 4-1/2 lengths. I wonder if this bet is also so strong. I think it is not. Good luck.
ReplyDeletethe odds r going up 4 ur horse. indiarace said 4.5@night now says 5/1. shud i make it win/place bet? pl reply.
ReplyDeleteDear vk,
ReplyDeleteThe very reason to follow horses on the FINOO list is to eliminate the stressful process of making decisions at any stage except ticking a check list to see if the horse gets onto the list, and then ticking another check list (the 3 qualifiers) to see if it qualifies as a WIN bet.
The concept even completely eliminates the stress of assessing rivals, analyzing the contenders or checking if the odds are right. Because I have come to strongly believe that man's brain is just not hard wired to effectively handle such various tasks without letting personal, subjective shortcomings creep in.
I strongly believe in betting the FINOO horses for WIN only irrespective of the price. However, a student of mine has recently uploaded some stat (check out "Sunday (Apr 26) races contd...") to show that even the second check list (the 3 qualifiers) is unnecessary and one can make decent profit by just blindly following FINOO list horses for place.
So the answer to your question is look into your own comfort zone, and then take a call whether you want to bet for WIN only or PLACE only or win/place.
Whatever decision you take, I wish you good luck.
Dear Prakash Gosavi:
ReplyDeleteNormally I shun after comments and post mortem. They are of only academic interest. But since your FINOO system is in the infant stage I would like to draw you attention to my workings which I am not sure whether you will agree or not.
Yesterday your tip was The Giant based on the FINOO.
Now I had worked out the TF rating and FF of each and every horse in race no.2 and the ones which are coming in the reckoning are as under:
1. Saddlers Rule TF - 37 and FF 24.23
2. The Giant TF - 26 and FF 21.13
3. Desert Dynamite TF - 18 and FF 25.16
4. Saarah TF - 5 and FF 25.98
5. Highland Quest TF - 5 and FF 25.58
Others were still very poor.
Now I applied your FINOO rule to this and The Giant was the horse coming as moral bet becasue of its TF and FF and also fulfilling the FINOO conditions.That lead me to double my bet and it paid me good.
I look forward to your comments.
Today I have not worked out any details because of my committments else where but tomorrow I shall post the details well before the race.
Thanks and have a wonderful day.
Ravi
These qualifier rules are basically meant for the FINOO list. But your message now makes me wonder if it would be worthwhile to check if anyone with any kind of handicapping method/or system could make use of them to segregate a bet out of possible contenders.
ReplyDeleteThere may be some merit in that but unless someone works out the stat, it would be imprudent for me to offer a comment.
Wishing you the best.
what this man ravi is talking abt tf & ff? we are just coming to terms with finoo list. now don't burden us more.
ReplyDeleteSIR,
ReplyDeleteis this a personal list of follow horses. How does a horse become a FINOO horse?
Regards,
Amith.
Dear Amith, it is the same thing what you learnt in the Advanced workshop, only I have now "categorized" the insights we get using our formulae so that we can do without the math and just keep an eye out for a particular move by a horse on the watch list to get upgraded as the FINOO list horse. That's all.
ReplyDeleteI am monitoring for u both place (as I suggested) and WIN (as you recommend), here are results so far.
ReplyDeleteI say, no qualifier no filter only follow finoo for place
Rs 1000/- per bet on tote at Bangalore*
No Horse Place paid (on Rs1000)
1. Balance De Power 1,200
2. Blue Danube 1,200
3. Moon Flower 2,100
4. Marine Zone 2,300
5. Czar Alexander -1,000
6. Up North 1,800
7. Secret Agenda 2,400
8. Golden Kingdom 1,100
9. Smoking Aces* -----
10. Born Special 2,200
11. The Giant 1,500
12. Pure Devotion -1,000
-----------
13,800 Returns
Less 11,000 Investment
=========
2,800 Net profit
*No place pool in 3horse race.
Strike rate for PLACE bets 10/12 = 83.3%
Return on investment (ROI) 2800/11000 = 25.5%
Making WIN bets only after applying the qualifier rules as recommended by you
Rs 1000/- per bet on tote at Bangalore
No Horse win paid (on Rs1000)
1. Balance De Power 1,400
2. Blue Danube 1,800
3. Golden Kingdom -1,000
4. Smoking Aces -1,000
5. The Giant 4,300
6. Pure Devotion -1,000
-----------
7,500 Returns
Less 6,000 Investment
=========
1,500 Net profit
Strike rate for WIN bets 3/6 = 50%
Return on investment (ROI) 1,500/6,000 = 25%
JUST a point:I don't have any hesitation in proclaiming him(Dasarath Singh) as a"good or better than Fargeat"These are your words today TILL THE 18TH of April he was treated as an inferior jockey ,that prompted me to make a comment "Prakash was that a joke".The fact is ,he is a good rider but nobody takes him seriously.
ReplyDeleteMr Ravi ;Whats for Raviwar.....Giant looked good to me too.Please come up before the sun rises not after it sets.
ReplyDeleteDear Jawnsin,
ReplyDeleteBeing a good rider and being the form rider are two different things.
On that occasion I compared him with Malesh Narredu (in top 10 despite not being in form)--hence that comment.
When I compared him with Fargeat (who was without his normal form until he left this season) yesterday, I made clear why Dasrath Singh's fresh swing in form (riding a back to back double on the Friday card) becomes an important consideration vis a vis Fargeat's lacklustre form before he left.
Just for your information, if all the three were in their best possible forms, my order would be Malesh Narredu, Samuel Fargeat and then Dasrath Singh.